eVTOL: A Timeless Idea of Personal Mobility & Freedom. Who Will Get It Right?
I Got A Close-Up Look At The Possibilities & Technology.
No, I did not fly it. But I would love to.
I needed two weeks of training from PIVOTAL to do so. I got a good feel for the craft, technology and was exciting to imagine the simplicity, that everyone could fly one day, just as everyone can drive.
I was at the ‘Electrify Expo’ in Los Angeles this Saturday in Los Angeles. Yes, it was filled with electric mobility ideas - skateboards, scooters, cars, SUVs. While they were are all good and showcased the progress EVs made, a VTOL start-up called PIVOTAL caught my imagination.
It is an idea that will transition through time, companies and leaders before it becomes mainstream. I look at eVTOL and PIVOTAL through the thinking I lay out in my book.
This Idea Will Pass Through Multiple Start-Ups & Incumbent Companies Till Someone Gets It Right - On Product & On Context
In my new book, ‘Ideas Don’t Die, Companie Do.’, I explain how leaders get trapped in four edges as they fall in love with the initial idea. The "Thinking on the Edges" framework, offers a nuanced perspective on their potential for success or failure in the rapidly evolving personal aviation market. My framework posits that breakthrough ideas stem from navigating four critical "edges" or conflicts: love of your product versus features customers want, company products/experiences versus customers' love of other products/experiences, emerging ideas from the industry versus disruptive idead from other industries, and enterprise focus versus ecosystem thinking. PIVOTAL’s distinct choice of focusing on light eVTOL aircraft requiring no pilot’s license, a departure from the commercial air taxi segment, positions it uniquely to either thrive by mastering these edges or falter by succumbing to their inherent challenges.
Let me explain.
The First Edge: The Love of Your Product Versus Features Customers Want
PIVOTAL's core product, the Helix, represents a deliberate design choice emphasizing simplicity, intuitive joystick controls, and a user interface that aligns with the FAA regulations, eliminating traditional pilot license requirements. This directly addresses a significant customer pain point: the high barrier to entry for personal flight. By offering a product that prioritizes accessibility and ease of use, PIVOTAL appears to avoid the "Build Trap," where companies focus on outputs (e.g., complex features) rather than genuine customer value. This approach contrasts sharply with many competitors who are developing more complex, multi-passenger commercial air taxis priced significantly higher.
However, the risk of failure at this edge lies in PIVOTAL becoming too enamored with its current recreational, single-seat design and the simplicity it offers. While ideal for initial market entry, customer expectations for personal aviation may evolve to demand more versatility, such as multi-passenger capacity, longer ranges, or utility beyond purely recreational flying. If PIVOTAL’s "love" for the Helix’s current features prevents rapid iteration or diversification to meet these emerging needs, it could miss broader market opportunities and risk being outpaced by more adaptable designs or regulatory shifts.
Paul Cornu in his experimental helicopter, achieving the first manned vertical take-off and sustained flight in 1907 (Design World)
The Second Edge: Love of Your Company Products & Experiences Versus Your Customers Love of Other’s Products and Experiences
PIVOTAL’s strategy implicitly recognizes the "transfer of expectations," where customer experiences from unrelated industries shape demands for new products. The ease of use of a personal eVTOL, requiring no pilot’s license, appeals to a customer base accustomed to the simplicity of operating personal drones or enjoying user-friendly digital interfaces in other aspects of their lives. This aligns with the "Uber" effect, where simplicity and convenience from one sector reset expectations across others. PIVOTAL aims to provide a "wow" experience by making personal flight an accessible reality, leveraging the mental models of seamless digital engagement and on-demand services.
Conversely, this edge presents a significant failure point. Customers' expectations are continuously influenced by rapid advancements in other industries, such as the seamless autonomy and digital integration found in modern automobiles (e.g., Tesla). If PIVOTAL fails to integrate advanced autonomous flight features, sophisticated digital ecosystems for flight planning, or seamless integration with broader transportation networks (e.g., ground transport), the "wow" factor of personal flight could diminish. The recent delivery delays for the Helix also pose a risk; customers accustomed to rapid delivery from e-commerce giants like Amazon might transfer these expectations, leading to dissatisfaction and eroded brand loyalty.
The Third Edge: Emerging Ideas from Your Industry Versus Emerging Disruptive Ideas from Other Industries
PIVOTAL deliberately avoids the traditional aerospace industry’s focus on heavily certified, complex commercial air taxis. Instead, its tilt-aircraft architecture, which significantly reduces mechanical complexity, reflects a disruptive idea, possibly influenced by simpler mechanisms from other engineering fields. Furthermore, partnerships with the U.S. Air Force and programs like AFWERX Agility Prime for evaluation suggest an openness to applying its technology in "dissimilar contexts" like defense, demonstrating a willingness to learn from outside its immediate recreational focus. This could be a powerful differentiator, allowing PIVOTAL to bypass the "Innovator's Dilemma" by not being tied to legacy industry paradigms.
However, the risk here is substantial. The ultralight classification limits operational scope, prohibiting use in congested areas and near airports. While beneficial for early market entry, this regulatory constraint could become a critical barrier if the broader eVTOL industry, driven by companies pursuing more stringent certifications (like Joby Aviation), reshapes public and regulatory perceptions of what constitutes "safe" or "viable" eVTOL operation. If cross-industry innovations in autonomy, battery technology, or manufacturing scale from sectors like automotive or consumer electronics bypass PIVOTAL's specific niche, they might be disrupted by unexpected entrants with superior "unnatural capabilities".
The 1917 Curtiss Autoplane, an early prototype combining a car body with biplane wings, represents a foundational concept in flying car development (The Detroit Bureau)
The Fourth Edge: Enterprise Focus Versus Ecosystem Thinking
Pivotal's initial strategy of maintaining a "lean operational structure" and focusing solely on personal aviation has allowed for earlier market entry and production compared to its commercial air taxi counterparts. Its strategic backing by Larry Page and partnerships with defense organizations provide crucial financial stability and access to testing facilities, hinting at a nascent ecosystem approach that goes beyond purely internal capabilities. This suggests an understanding that external collaborations can provide critical support.
The greatest long-term challenge for PIVOTAL lies at this edge. The eventual success of the eVTOL market, even for personal aviation, hinges on extensive infrastructure development, including vertiport networks and charging capabilities. PIVOTAL’s current approach may lack the scale and resources to drive or significantly influence this broader ecosystem development, leaving it vulnerable to larger competitors who are investing heavily in comprehensive ecosystem strategies. If industry consolidation occurs, PIVOTAL's niche focus, while an early advantage, could limit its access to capital and resources, potentially marginalizing it in a maturing market. The evolution of urban air mobility infrastructure requires coordination with diverse stakeholders, a task that demands significant ecosystem thinking beyond just product delivery.
ConvairCar Model 118, a prototype flying car, in flight during testing (Auto Revolution)
PIVOTAL's journey represents a bold attempt to disrupt personal mobility by "thinking on the edges." Its success hinges on its ability to leverage its strength in simplified design and accessible entry, continuously adapt to evolving customer expectations (even those transferred from other industries), remain agile to cross-industry disruptions, and strategically expand its ecosystem vision. Failure could arise from an over-attachment to its current product, a lag in meeting broader customer experience demands, regulatory shifts that disfavor its niche, or an inability to integrate effectively into the necessary infrastructure ecosystem. Ultimately, PIVOTAL must demonstrate "moving intelligence" – the ability to rapidly apply learnings and evolve its strategy across these four interconnected edges to truly sustain its early lead and capitalize on the significant growth projected for the eVTOL market.
Go into ‘thinking on the egdes’ to become an ideas-obsessed leader to create an ideas enterprises, I invite you get a copy of my book.
